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          歡迎訪問國際儒學聯合會
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          國際儒學聯合會理事長、日本前首相福田康夫在第九屆世界和平論壇大會上的演講
          發布日期:2021-09-09

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            The Global Roles of the United States, China, and Japan

            美國、中國和日本的世界角色


            China has been developing at an unprecedented speed since the beginning of the 21st century.

            21世紀以來,中國的發展速度史無前例。


            As a populous country, it is incredible that China, while burdened with a population 3.5 times larger than that of the United States and 12 times larger than that of Japan, can achieve such a rapid economic growth, and its GDP is already 3.5 times larger than that of Japan. In 6 to 7 years, the GDP of China will be comparable to that of the United States, the world's hegemon after World War II. In this regard, not only Japan, but the whole world, seems to be shaken.

            令人難以置信的是,作為人口大國,中國在高速經濟增長的同時,背負著美國的3.5倍、日本的12倍人口。中國的GDP也已經達到日本的3.5倍,再過6至7年就可以與二戰后的世界霸主美國相提并論。這不僅震撼了日本,也震撼了整個世界。


            Therefore, it is reasonably understandable why the United States is so surprised and disturbed by the extraordinary growth of China.

            因此也就不難理解為什么美國看到中國的急速發展會感到如此地驚訝和焦慮。


            Japan, whose economic development has embraced a turning point, will be decisively affected if any confrontation occurs between China and the United States during the Great Power Competition. That's why Japan needs to make great efforts to prevent that from happening.

            中美在大國角逐中若發生爭端,對已經迎來經濟發展拐點的日本來說無疑具有決定性影響。正因如此,日本需要下功夫以防止中美爭端的發生。


            The era of unprofitable competition, when nations compete by strengthening their military power, should be ended as soon as possible, even if it does not necessarily lead to war.

            即使不至于引發戰爭,通過加強軍事力量來競爭的無益競爭時代也應盡快結束。


            In the mid-1980s, the United States and the Soviet Union competed over the number of nuclear warheads, and they could not afford the consequences of losing, and agreed to halt this unwise competition at the Reykjavík Summit. In contrast, we the human beings are facing such common crises as climate change and environmental problems that have been more severe and afford no delay.

            20世紀80年代中期,美蘇就核彈頭數量競爭,最終因雙方無法承受而在雷克雅未克會晤中同意停止這種愚蠢的競爭。與美蘇競爭時期相比,如今人類共同面臨的危機,如氣候變化和環境問題等,不僅更加嚴重而且更加急迫。


            To get through these challenges, Japan, the United States and China need to work together and contribute their wisdom. 

            為了應對這些危機,日、美、中需齊心協力,凝聚智慧。


            The Shifting Positions of the United States and China

            美國和中國的立場發生變化


            The economic stagnation due to the COVID-19 has made the United States become more alarmed by China's catch-up.

            由于新冠病毒導致的經濟停滯,美國對中國的追趕更加警惕。即便如此,美國如今也無法阻止中國的發展。


            Despite this, the United States cannot block China’s development today and such attempts would create political and economic division and bring confrontation and chaos around the world. The United States, who intends to maintain global stability, could lose credibility and prestige in the eyes of other countries ultimately.

            美中對立會在政治和經濟層面上分裂世界,招致對峙和混亂。希望維持世界穩定的美國有可能因此一舉失去他國對其的信任感和威信。


            U.S. President Joe Biden's harsh statements on China are more likely to be based on domestic situation such as political pressure from the congress, rather than long-term considerations. And China must understand that as well.

            美國總統拜登嚴厲的對華發言,與其說是出于長期的考慮,不如說是基于應對國內議會壓力的吧。中國也必須理解這一點。


            It may not be necessarily needed to wait till 2030 to witness the transition of the global economic preeminence from the US to China. However, even after it were economically overtaken by China, the United States would continue to lead the democratic countries. Both economically and politically, the United States is eager to remain the role as the great power that underpins world stability, and few things could alter that.

            不用等到2030年,美國就可能會把世界經濟第一的位置讓給中國。但是,即使在經濟上被中國趕超,美國也會繼續領導西方國家。毫無疑問,美國希望無論在經濟上還是政治上,都能繼續保有支撐世界穩定的大國身份。


            With the consecutive steady economic growth, the Chinese people are experiencing a strong sense of prosperity at current moment, with the dream of becoming the strongest country in the world. And it is not so odd President Xi Jinping is placed high expectations as the Top Leader to lead this dream.

            中國的經濟持續穩步增長。今天,中國國民已經切身感受到了國家富強,胸懷“成為世界第一強國”的夢想。因此,對引領中國實現這一夢想的中國領導層寄予厚望也就不足為奇。


            It is the 1.4 billion Chinese people who support the so-called authoritarian Chinese system. In China, smart phones and social networks have been evolving the society. The administration has no choice but to care for public opinions, similar to our democratic countries. However, it should be noted that excessive agitation towards nationalism will only backfire.


            支撐著中國制度的是14億中國國民。在中國,智能手機和社交網絡正在改變社會。中國領導層和我們西方國家一樣,不得不在意輿論。但是,要注意的是,過分煽動民族主義,只會適得其反。


            The democratic state should not only criticize the Chinese system, which have received a considerable appreciation domestically, but also prove the advantages of democracy by its own actions.

            中國制度在國內得到相當高的評價。西方國家不僅批判中國制度,更用自己的行動證明他們的優勢。


            In the future, China will certainly keep growing. However, to fulfill its own development, China cannot ignore the global economic system that has been centered on the United States after World War II and maintained sometimes with necessary sacrifices.

            未來,中國也必將繼續成長。但是,為了實現成長,中國不能無視在二戰后以美國為中心,有時需要以犧牲為代價才得以維持的全球經濟體系。


            Isn’t mutual understanding of each other's position the so-called "a Community of Shared Future"? 

            相互理解對方的立場不就是所謂的“命運共同體”嗎?


            Imminent Environmental Crisis

            迫近的環境危機


            Even in a prosperously developing China today, it is unable to remove the constraints of environmental problems and climate change. In terms of a community of shared future, indulging the situation worsen means a destined doom of the world.

            雖然中國發展順利,但也無法擺脫環境問題、氣候變化的桎梏。不解決這些危機,世界將不復存在,這即體現了命運共同體。


            Due to global warming, permafrost inplaces like Siberia has been melting and carbon dioxide (CO2) is being released in large quantities accordingly, which has already accelerated the global warming, and the temperature has been abruptly rising. From the end of the last century, the unknown virus may as well have been released through forest exploitation in South America or permafrost melting in Siberia.

            由于全球變暖,西伯利亞等地的永久凍土因而融化,大量釋放二氧化碳(CO2),進一步加速全球變暖,帶來了爆發性的氣溫上升。從上個世紀末期開始,未知的病毒有可能通過南美的森林演變出來,或者從西伯利亞的永久凍土中被釋放出來。


            The days when national development overwhelms everything has unconsciously come to an end, which we should be consciously aware of.

            我們必須意識到,只要自己國家發展就好的時代已經在不知不覺中結束了。


            The entire international community is obliged to unite and take response measures as soon as possible. There is no space left for great powers, who alternatively ought to serve the role as models, struggling for hegemony and influence.

            對此,整個國際社會必須團結一致,盡快采取對應措施。本應為世界做表率的大國沒有余力再進行霸權和勢力斗爭。


            Valuable Trusting Relationships

            重要的信任關系


            In this case, how should Japan act?

            在此情況下,日本應該如何行動呢?


            First, we should utilize the US-Japan alliance to reassure and settle people down on issues such like climate change and to indicate the direction of the new era.

            首先,應該利用美日同盟關系,在氣候變化等問題上,讓人們安心、安定下來,并為人們指明新時代的方向。


            China is a large neighbor and has an inseparable relationship with Japan no matter in the past or in the future, therefore the two countries should not slide into a hostile relation. It is necessary to strengthen cooperative connections along with deepening mutual understanding.

            由于中國是近鄰大國,無論過去還是將來都與日本有著密不可分的關系,所以與中國不應該是敵對關系,有必要在加深相互理解的同時,加強合作關系。


            Based on the understanding of both China and the United States, the cooperation mechanism of the United States, China and Japan will be able to form a powerful lineup like "a tiger with wings" to better overcome the global crisis.

            在得到中美各自的理解的基礎上,為了克服全球危機,美、中、日的合作體制將形成“如虎添翼”般的強大陣容。


            There is no doubt that South Korea should also be included in this cooperation mechanism. Now the leadership is needed to keep a bigger picture in mind and move from confrontation to cooperation.

            當然,韓國也應該加入這一陣容。如今,需要具備從對立走向合作的大局觀的領導能力。


            What matters is the trust between the heads of the states. It is essential for the leaders to start dialogues for resolving major issues. Under current circumstances, it is questionable whether trusts between anystates’heads can be established .

            重要的是首腦之間的信任。因為在解決大問題上,首腦之間的對話是必須的。但在當前形勢下,任何國家建立領導人之間的信任關系都令人懷疑。


            Therefore, the heads of the states with a long-termvision should take responsibility and make efforts to achieve this goal.

            因此需要著眼于長遠未來的首腦們承擔責任,不懈努力。


             ?。ǚg:孫荺涵、周肇敏,國際儒學聯合會副理事長、日本法政大學名譽教授王敏 提供幫助)


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